How To Win Parlays

Parlay betting is one of the favorite forms of wager for NFL gamblers and is the most popular form of wagering besides sides and totals narrowly beating out teasers. For years bettors have tried to hit big against the sportsbooks betting parlays. Some gamblers seem to swear by them while others never go near them.

Parlay betting allows horseplayers to bet the races they want, their way.Since your Parlay races don’t have to be consecutive on the card, you can identify the horses you want to bet no matter the race they’re in. Plus, you can alternate between Win, Place and Show bets, so you can build your Parlay based on how strongly you feel about each horse. Parlays allow you the chance to use the same free play more than once, because a parlay really is only a wager that continues to place stake+win on the next selection. Remember, fixed odd three team parlays pay a little better than true odds. A parlay is a minimum of 2 games and it can go up to 12 games – depending on the online basketball sportbook and the actual sport and category being bet on. Usually all of the games have to end the way you predicted for you to win the whole parlay. Thus, if you are betting on a.

Are NFL parlays profitable? What can I do to maximize my edge against the bookmakers in these potentially large payoff but high variance type of bets? I’ll answer these questions and more in this article.

What Are Parlays?

Parlays are single wagers that are linked together, all of which must win for the parlay to be graded as a winner. Parlays are the American equivalent to accumulators, which are widely used in popular European betting markets.

The odds on parlays are greater than individual side or total bets. For instance, a two-team parlay pays +260 and a 3-team parlay +600, and as players add more bets to a parlay their odds continue to increase. Let’s look at an example of a typical three-team parlay on an NFL Sunday:

12 Team Parlay Win

Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts +8 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-110)

If I were to risk $100 on this three team parlay I’d have a potential payout amount of $600, good for a $500 profit. All three of the above teams would have to cover for me to win my bet. If two of my picks cover the point spread, but one of them ends in a push, the parlay then goes from three teams to two teams.

If I bet a two-team parlay and push the one of my picks, it normally just becomes a straight bet at -110 at the vast majority of online sportsbooks. In fact, if these are not the rules on two-team parlays at your sportsbook, I’d recommend finding another option because any other scenario, even a no action (refund your stake) is borderline predatory.

True Odds vs. Listed Odds

Parlays, just like every other NFL wager have built in vig for the sportsbooks. Below, we’ve compiled a table of the “true odds” on winning a parlay without the bookmaker’s juice and the typical odds offered at most online sportsbooks.

As you can see, the sportsbook have a considerable edge on bettors with the vig. While it is smaller, but still significant when players bet two or three-team parlays, it gets larger and larger as players add more teams to their bet.

The odds past two and three-team parlays start to get considerably worse and are downright robbery when the bettors hit 7-team parlays.

Calculated Parlays

When a bettor takes a wager that is not the standard -110, the sportsbook will recalculate the parlay to fit the player’s new chosen wagers. This can be when a bettor parlays a side or total with a prop (or other non -110 bet), and though the vig will still be a factor, bettors can usually get a better price on their wager than just going with the standard odds.

For instance, if we add a plus odds bet such as +120 or +130 to other -110 wagers, we will increase our overall parlay potential payout. The increase in odds will vary but sportsbook, but is certainly something NFL bettors should try to utilize.

Parlays Are Normally a Bad Bet

As we can see from the table above, it is clear parlays have a significant bookmakers edge, especially as bettors begin to increase the number of teams. One of the main reasons for the increase in the edge is the risk and variance taken by the sportsbooks if someone should hit one of these bets for massive money. A winning ticket on a 10-team parlay pays out immensely even with the massive edge by the sportsbooks. A $100 wager has potential winnings of $30,000 which is a nice chunk of change for the sportsbooks to payout.

Also, parlays are high odds bets with a low rate of success and will increase variance more so than straight wagers on sides and totals. Also, consider that if you are betting parlays that you’re most likely not getting the best line because you aren’t line shopping.

Sportsbooks are hard to beat, especially in NFL betting where line shopping is vital. When I bet a parlay, I essentially throw line shopping out the window. Sure, I could luck out here and there and get the best numbers on all my games at the same book, but that rarely happens. Finding the best lines available at a variety of books and betting individual wagers is usually a better option.

Tips for NFL Parlays

Even though parlays are generally –EV bets, there are some situations where we can bring the sportsbooks edge down considerably and give ourselves the best chance to beat the book despite the vig.

Don’t Go Over Three

Feel free to examine the table above again as it is quite clear the bookie’s edge gets a lot larger after two and three team parlays. The true odds of +300 for two-team parlays are not far from the offered line of most sportsbooks at +260. For three-team parlays, the true odds of +597 are only slightly off from the +600 offered at most sportsbooks.

These are by far the best options for parlay bettors. As bettors add more teams, the vig continues to increase, making even 4 or 5-team parlays much worse bets than one or two teams. As we get closer towards 10 teams, the odds on parlays are among the worst bets for sports bettors.

Playing With House Money?

When bettors first deposit at a sportsbook they are rewarded with a bonus that usually comes in the form of a freeplay. Since you are essentially playing with house money, your odds will increase on all wagers since you are not staking any of your own money.

Depending on the bonus amount, a freeplay may increase your edge on the bookies by 10-20 percent. Receiving plus odds (beating the bookie’s vig) may be possible on a variety of parlay wagers with this rather large added edge.

Correlated Parlays

Correlated parlays are two-team parlays that are essentially two bets on that are likely to win if one of them comes to fruition, at least in the handicapper’s mind.

In the NFL, this might happen when a high scoring team faces an opponent in which they are rather large favorites. The bettor may decide to bet the spread favorite and parlay the over because if he is right about the favored team covering the spread – he figures the game will be high scoring. If the favored team also has a poor defense, the underdog may also contribute a lot of points to the total. This situation can also be used the same way a game that a bettor predicts to be a low scoring affair. These are just examples of the reasoning behind correlated parlays, bettors have a variety of reasons for betting them.

Correlated parlays do not have quantifiable edges and bettors will have to use their own judgment in how a game will shape up. However, if you become adept at betting correlated parlays, it can be one of the only ways to gain an edge on the bookmakers via parlay.

Although, it is also pertinent to note that correlated parlays are sometimes frowned upon by sportsbooks, and many will limit the amount a bettor can wager or disallow them all together from certain accounts.

Best Sportsbooks for NFL Parlays

US-facing sportsbooks’ parlay odds have quite a bit of variation, and depending on the number of teams in the parlay, each book may offer an advantage over another.

Bovada.lv offers the best 4-team parlay odds around at 15/1, and they are also one of the most trusted books for US sports betting dating back a decade. No book comes close to matching Bovada at 15/1 on 4-team parlays. Most other sportsbooks servicing US players offer 12/1 on these bets, making Bovada the play to be for 4-team parlays.

Bookmaker.eu has a slight edge, but one that is worth your while on three-team parlays. While most other books offer 6/1 odds, Bookmaker gives players 6.5/1 on this wager. This is especially significant considering two and three-team parlays have the lowest house edge. Bookmaker’s parent company have been around a long time in the offshore world and they always seem to pay players. For some, that is all that matters.

5Dimes Sportsbook offer competitive odds as well on their parlays and is one of the few sites that allow bettors to parlay proposition wagers, such as player and team props with side and totals. 5Dimes is among the most trusted sportsbooks on the web and is a pioneer in offshore betting.

Google defines a parlay as a “cumulative series of bets in which winnings accruing from each transaction are used as a stake for a further bet.” To put that in layman’s terms, a parlay is simply placing multiple bets at once in the same bet and, therefore, needing all the bets to win order for a parlay to be successful. This article will walk through how to bet parlays including an overview of what a parlay is, calculating parlay odds, parlay bet variations and when professional bettors use parlays.

Table of Contents

What is a Parlay?

If a bettor were to bet three different lines, and only two of them proved to be winners, then the parlay would pay out zero dollars because it is an all-or-nothing type of wager. The idea behind betting a parlay is to improve the bets’ odds by pairing them together. For instance, a team may be listed as a -200 favorite, where there is a low payout for betting them by themselves, but by pairing them with a team that is favored at -105, a $200 wager would instead net $385.71 as opposed to the original $100 (by just betting the -200 favorite alone). A visual display is helpful to personify how parlays alter the odds.

If an individual were to bet three separate games by themselves, betting $100 per contest, this would be the outcome:

By betting these games separately, a bettor would make a $240 profit.

Now, if instead of betting the games separately, the bettor instead decided to parlay the three games at -125 each, one $100 wager would have netted $483.20 in profit or $583.20 in total.

On the flip side, if one of the picks were to be incorrect, betting the games separately would be the more profitable approach.

In this scenario, the bettor would have wagered $300 in total and would have finished with $60 in profit. If the same bettor were to have parlayed these three teams, the bet would have lost because one of the teams did not win (or cover), and the bettor would be down $100 (the price of the bet).

Parlays increase both the risk and potential return on your bets.

How To Win Parlay Bets

Return to Table of Contents

Calculating Parlay Odds

Calculating odds on a parlay is a difficult proposition and sportsbooks may have different odds for teams so the same parlay could pay out slightly differently depending on the sportsbook. The different methods for calculating parlay odds are as follows:

Bet Online

Use an online calculator

Calculate the odds yourself

Betting online is the easiest method for calculating odds as the websites calculate the odds for the bettor. They will show exactly how much money will be won from the parlay prior to placing the bet. If you’re interested in betting online we have deposit bonuses setup with DraftKings, Fanduel, PointsBet and William Hill.

Using an online calculator is also relatively easy because the lines can simply be typed in and the calculator will determine the amount you stand to win from the parlay.

Calculating the odds yourself is a difficult task but also one that can be taught based on the true odds. The true odds of a bet is determined by converting the moneyline odds on each bet into decimal odds. If the team is favored, the decimal odds can be determined by dividing the moneyline by 100 and adding that to 1.0. For instance, if a team is a -110 favorite, 100/110 equals 0.91 so the true odds of the bet would be 1.91. In the case of an underdog, the odds can be determined by diving the money by 100 and adding that to 1.0. A +110 underdog would divide 110/100 to get to 1.1 and the true odds of the bet would 2.10.

How To Win Parlay Cards 2019

This chart shows the true odds of parlays where each bet is -110.

Compare the odds offering by your sportsbook to the true parlay odds comparison shown below to understand if your sportsbook is building in additional vig (or juice).

Parlay Bet Pushes

When one of the bets in a parlay pushes, or breaks even, the standard practice is to treat the bet as if it were not part of the parlay. If you bet an over/under as part of a three-team parlay, and the other two lines prove to be winners while the over/under pushes, then the bet is paid out as a two-team parlay. Bettors will want to read the site/book rules on parlays to confirm this is the case prior to betting with an operator. Some operators will make up their own rules to decrease the favorability of the odds for the bettor so it is on the onus of the bettor to confirm the rules prior to wagering.

Parlay Variations

There are three different types of potential parlays to bet on operators other than a standard, multi-line setup. Some unique parlay variations can be placed include:

Open Parlays

Progressive Parlays

Mutli-Chance Parlays

An open parlay is defined as a parlay where the games all do not need to finish at once. Bettors can decide to pair lines on a given date and hold on to the final pieces of the parlay in order to increase odds. For instance, if a bettor feels great about the Browns and Giants one weekend, but also wants to leave the possibility open to increase the odds, bettors can place an open bet and add in additional games you want at a later date.

A progressive parlay is defined as a parlay that offers the bettor the ability to win as long as a certain threshold of games is picked correctly on a ticket. For instance, if you bet a four-team progressive parlay, you could choose to get paid if you pick two games correct, three games correct or four games correct. In this scenario, a bettor would receive more money depending on how many games are correct within the bet. Four games correctly would pay more than three and three games correct would pay more than two. This is different than a multi-game parlay which would pay the same regardless as long as the minimum threshold was equaled or eclipsed.

A multi-chance parlay allows you to win as long as you pick a certain threshold of pre-determined games on a ticket. For example, if the threshold is to pick at least three games correctly in a progressive parlay (out of five lines total), bettors will make the same amount on the wager whether three teams win or five. In this format, bettors receive the same payout as long as they hit the minimum threshold of correct bets within a parlay. It gives parlay bettors some breathing room compared to a normal parlay, just in case they get a game or two wrong, but also offers significantly worse odds.

How to Bet Parlays: When Professionals Use Parlays

Parlays are some of the most popular bets for casual sports bettors because of the increased risk and reward associated with them, and often have a negative stigma for more serious sports bettors, but parlays are also valuable tools that some professional sports bettors use. Professionals use parlays in a multitude of ways and find ways to gain an edge by using them.

Best Way To Win Parlays

Avoiding Betting Limits. Many casinos and/or sportsbooks feature maximum bet limits on specific sports and games, but also offer the ability to bet parlays. Parlays are a way to maximize the potential of the money bet on a matchup. Whereas a casino may cap their limit at $1,000 per bet, a $1,000 three-game parlay would offer a very different return than just a $1,000 single-game moneyline bet. Since Parlays maximize your return when you’re right, and maximize the penalty when you’re wrong, they can be a tool in even the most experienced bettors toolkit.

Correlated Bets. Parlays can also be used to gain a potential edge by pairing up correlated bets. While sportsbooks have made an attempt to remove this edge from some of the most popular bet types, you may still come across a new sportsbook that allows this or a specific situation where correlated bets may make sense. For instance, an MLB team may be facing off against a starting pitcher who has shown recent struggles and been pulled early his last two starts. There are also rumors from the local beat writer that the pitcher has blisters on his throwing hand. To add to this, the team played extra innings last night and were forced to use a lot of their bullpen depth. This is a scenario where the speculation on blisters could be wrong and the recent performance just a blip on the radar, but if it is accurate than it is very likely that a Cubs win and OVER bet would be correlated, and a bettor would then consider betting both the Cubs moneyline and the over of the game in a parlay.

Similarly, if you believe a sports market has mispriced an entire factor, it is likely to be off on all bets of that type. This could include things like the weather in a PGA TOUR event, rule changes in football, or the change in manufacturing location and materials for a baseball.

Interested in learning more about How to Bet on Sports? Check out our educational series.

Looking for the best deposit bonuses and promo codes? We have the best deposit offers and promo codes available for DraftKings, Fanduel, PointsBet, and William Hill.